Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2752…8ce3 sports 468 markets active 2h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,727 (-2%) realized −$7,727 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%320W / 147L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$4,923
other 28% −$2,888
world 0% +$101
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 7 -10.0% -18.5% 71% 43% -7.4%
≤90d 51 -8.9% -17.6% 63% 33% -11.7%
all 467 -3.3% -12.5% 69% 24% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 24% -11.4%
10% -20.8% 12% -19.9%
15% -28.5% 7% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 4% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$192 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$7,727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses320 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)467 / 468
History coverage629d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $475 +$24 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$50 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,095 +$105 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $63 +$7 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $137 −$136 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $195 +$105 +54%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 25 $38 −$37 -99%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 May 25 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $33 $0 -1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $24 +$9 +40%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Nara Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $15 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $33 −$21 -64%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 5.5 May 17 $5 +$3 +56%
CB Murcia vs. Unicaja May 17 $21 +$9 +45%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 28 $55 −$35 -64%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $29 +$1 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $153 +$3 +2%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Oeiras 3: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jonas Forejtek Apr 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $38 −$38 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 14 $80 −$14 -18%
BMW Open: Marin Cilic vs Daniel Altmaier Apr 14 $84 +$14 +17%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Apr 14 $118 +$7 +6%
BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca Apr 14 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 11 $15 −$5 -33%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $117 +$9 +8%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 11 $14 −$6 -40%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Apr 10 $139 +$5 +4%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $155 +$16 +10%
Sharks vs. Ducks Apr 10 $120 $0 +0%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Bublik Apr 09 $109 +$13 +12%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $104 +$7 +7%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $57 +$43 +75%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev Apr 08 $178 −$178 -100%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 08 $180 +$2 +1%
Wuning: Alexandr Binda vs Kaichi Uchida Apr 06 $79 +$9 +11%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $156 +$11 +7%
Flames vs. Ducks Apr 05 $210 +$3 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 04 $112 −$1 -1%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 04 $88 +$11 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 2h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $499 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $148 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $38 10h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $23 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,095 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $63 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $105 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 8d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $38 30d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $32 31d
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $32 31d
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 31d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 99¢ $20 31d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 90¢ $18 32d
Will Nara Club win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 32d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 33d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B SELL Liquid 84¢ $11 34d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY Liquid 74¢ $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.75 · official $26.75 (match) · 3194 history records