Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2751…d0b1 weather 405 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+5%) realized +$190 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate51%185W / 179L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day75.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$12
14 days+$190
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$181
sports 1% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -6.0% -15.0% 40% 28% -8.5%
≤30d 364 +3.6% -6.3% 51% 30% -6.5%
≤90d 364 +3.6% -6.3% 51% 30% -6.5%
all 364 +3.6% -6.3% 51% 30% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 30% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 21% -15.5%
15% -23.4% 17% -23.7%
20% -30.9% 14% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses185 / 179
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions52
Markets (closed)364 / 405
History coverage17d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $1 $20 +$19 (+1891%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? No 85¢ 85¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? No 95¢ 95¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Yes 40¢ 98¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+146%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? No 80¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? No 93¢ 91¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? No 88¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? No 77¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? No 69¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 69¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? No 96¢ 28¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+125%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 8? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 8? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 8? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 8? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 8? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$13 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -71%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 +$4 +72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$12 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 9? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 7? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on June 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $9 11m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $17 12m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $19 12m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 13m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? SELL No 25¢ $1 31m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $9 34m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $9 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $13 43m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 6¢ $1 53m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 56m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 58m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 58m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? BUY No 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.06 · official $215.06 (match) · 1414 history records