Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x2750…0b3c other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$888 (+25%) realized +$881 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$356
sports 24% +$220
world 15% −$8
crypto 13% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +69.8% +53.6% 52% 43% +9.8%
≤30d 21 +69.8% +53.6% 52% 43% +9.8%
≤90d 21 +69.8% +53.6% 52% 43% +9.8%
all 21 +69.8% +53.6% 52% 43% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.6% 43% +9.8%
10% ← realistic here +38.9% 43% -0.7%
15% +25.5% 38% -10.3%
20% +13.2% 33% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +106% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$40 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized+$881
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $160 $170 +$10 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $58 $120 +$62 (+108%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 18¢ $119 $74 −$45 (-38%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ $32 $8 −$24 (-75%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $85 −$6 -7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$90 +970%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$94 +199%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $249 +$119 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $123 +$3 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $284 −$25 -9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $116 +$96 +82%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 +$234 +105%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $257 +$143 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $486 +$7 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $453 −$12 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 −$3 -3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$300 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $169 −$20 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$34 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$7 +25%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 +$119 +408%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $20 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $24 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $66 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $58 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $168 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $11 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $7 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $14 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 57¢ $141 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $28 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $37 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $68 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $58 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $118 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $0 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $9 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $9 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $15 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.30 · official $490.30 (match) · 111 history records