Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2750…3134 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-16%) realized −$83 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$161
other 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 60% -19.4%
≤30d 15 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 60% -19.4%
≤90d 15 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 60% -19.4%
all 15 -7.3% -16.2% 60% 60% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 60% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 53% -27.1%
15% -31.5% 33% -34.1%
20% -38.2% 33% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$45 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ 100¢ $54 $101 +$47 (+88%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 53¢ 52¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 52¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $27 +$18 +64%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $102 +$24 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $40 +$11 +27%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $85 +$17 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $81 +$27 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $45 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $45 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $45 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $55 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 60¢ $27 2h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $52 2h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 48¢ $25 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $100 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $28 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $35 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 12h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $37 14h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $2 14h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $40 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $90 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 14h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 74¢ $26 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $51 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $51 18h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $60 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $40 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 66¢ $36 18h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 83¢ $85 26h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 60¢ $20 28h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Mackenzie McDonald 62¢ $28 28h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $108 28h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 71¢ $70 29h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $38 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.41 · official $145.41 (match) · 39 history records