Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x274e…1cf7 sports 65 markets active 8h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-18%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%21W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$62
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1
other 32% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -20.6% -28.2% 33% 33% -30.6%
≤30d 58 -21.2% -28.7% 33% 33% -28.0%
≤90d 58 -21.2% -28.7% 33% 33% -28.0%
all 65 -21.5% -28.9% 32% 32% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 32% -27.2%
10% -35.7% 32% -34.2%
15% -42.0% 32% -40.5%
20% -47.6% 28% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage117d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$14 -64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +42%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +134%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$11 +176%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +216%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$17 +202%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +247%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 +$20 +329%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$8 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $8 +$10 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $7 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $3 7h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $7 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 25¢ $7 10h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $3 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 27¢ $11 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 27¢ $10 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 35¢ $2 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 70¢ $2 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 70¢ $2 14h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $8 36h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 38h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 59¢ $8 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 31¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records