Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x274c…ca04 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 669d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$88
14 days+$19
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$110
other 36% −$153
politics 14% $0
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -55.2% -59.5% 0% 0% -44.0%
≤30d 7 -9.4% -18.0% 29% 29% +3.4%
≤90d 9 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 33% +1.5%
all 29 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 21% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 21% -11.5%
10% -24.7% 17% -20.0%
15% -31.9% 10% -27.7%
20% -38.6% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage669d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $139 $135 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $159 −$17 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $73 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $47 −$13 -27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 −$4 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $121 +$156 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $150 +$73 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $98 +$21 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 18 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Apr 11 $27 +$7 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 25 $4 $0 -3%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Jan 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Will a Republican win Utah US Senate Election? Jan 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Phil Foden win the Ballon d’Or? Jan 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will macdegods be the biggest loser of The House Poker Night? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "skibidi" before the election? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will a Democrat win Oregon Presidential Election? Jan 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Jan 12 $1 $0 +24%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 12 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 12 $10 $0 +3%
Pavel Durov released in August? Nov 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Nov 05 $10 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Sep 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 26 $55 −$5 -9%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $213 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Sep 22 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $142 1h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 16¢ $142 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $159 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $73 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 28¢ $34 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $34 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $47 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 24¢ $9 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 59¢ $48 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 61¢ $50 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $153 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $71 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $52 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $52 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $68 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $223 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 66¢ $150 16d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 44d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 85¢ $120 44d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $98 44d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes $1 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes $2 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes $4 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes $1 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes $1 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes $2 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes $5 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes $0 161d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes $6 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.33 · official $135.33 (match) · 107 history records