Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x2744…938c crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+20%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% +3.3%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% +3.3%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% +3.3%
all 11 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 64% +3.3%
10% -18.3% 45% -6.5%
15% -26.2% 36% -15.6%
20% -33.5% 27% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$54 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$20 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$13 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$5 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records