Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2744…7f3d other 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%21W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$27
other 26% −$24
sports 24% −$27
crypto 6% −$8
finance 5% −$4
culture 5% −$8
world 3% −$5
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 77 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 162 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 172 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses21 / 151
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage100d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 93¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $277 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 $0 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $375 −$5 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $251 +$1 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $138 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $48 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 09 $48 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 05 $165 −$2 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $58 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $91 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $385 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $62 1h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 7h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $24 8h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 15h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $50 15h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $51 23h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $38 23h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $38 29h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 30h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 36h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $63 36h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $63 44h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 45h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $64 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $64 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $41 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $42 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $59 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $61 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 4d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.26 · official $41.26 (match) · 688 history records