Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2741…90f3 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%20W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 95% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -4.5% -13.6% 95% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -4.5% -13.6% 95% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses20 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage20d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 18, 7AM ET? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 18, 3AM ET? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 13, 7AM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 13, 5AM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 13, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 12, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 12, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 12, 4AM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 11, 7AM ET? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 11, 5AM ET? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 73,400 on May 29, 4PM ET? May 29 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records