Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x273c…9125
sports · 82 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$5,173 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,166 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$5,166
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses46 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage81d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$73
14 days−$77
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? No 75¢ 90¢ $13 $15 +$3 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$23 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$21 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$16 -83%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$8 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? Jun 09 $116 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 01 $0 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $3 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $64 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $45 −$14 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $19 −$12 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $14 −$6 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $31 −$9 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $137 −$36 -26%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 09 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 09 $3 $0 -8%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 09 $13 −$1 -4%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $29 −$1 -2%
Bruins vs. Sabres May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 20 $22 −$1 -3%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $593 +$173 +29%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $3,187 +$211 +7%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 19 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 18 $636 +$340 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 18 $2,972 +$28 +1%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks Apr 16 $177 +$45 +26%
Kings vs. Canucks Apr 15 $341 +$18 +5%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 15 $299 +$20 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 15 $319 +$153 +48%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 15 $256 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 15 $1,961 +$37 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$4,919
crypto 19% +$405
weather 3% −$154
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 89¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 88¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 60¢ $8 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 63¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 86¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 80¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $22 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -35.7% -41.9% 40% 15% -22.9%
≤30d 33 -32.6% -39.0% 30% 12% -26.0%
≤90d 81 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 32% +6.3%
all 81 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 32% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 32% +6.3%
10% -19.5% 20% -3.9%
15% -27.3% 12% -13.2%
20% -34.4% 11% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.20 · official $15.20 (match) · 752 history records