Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2739…9d99 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$17
politics 29% −$11
sports 9% +$39
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 +1.5% -8.2% 7% 5% -9.6%
all 123 +2.2% -7.5% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage114d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $428 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $235 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $584 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $406 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $446 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $444 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $217 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $493 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $264 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $240 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $229 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $209 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $209 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $229 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 25d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $185 26d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $185 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $225 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $225 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $242 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $242 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records