Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2736…9fc0 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,393 (-66%) realized −$5,393 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$5,396
politics 26% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
other 1% $0
world 1% +$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 25% +6.2%
≤90d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 73% 18% -95.2%
all 22 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 9% -69.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 9% -69.6%
10% -28.3% 9% -72.5%
15% -35.2% 9% -75.2%
20% -41.6% 9% -77.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$604 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$5,393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage161d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $30 +$20 +65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $30 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $17 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $16 $0 +3%
76ers vs. Celtics May 08 $6 +$14 +245%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +2%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Senators vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $1,774 −$1,774 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Pacers vs. Pistons Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Mar 22 $1,645 −$1,645 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 22 $27 $0 +2%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Mar 11 $27 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Feb 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 23 $255 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $2,005 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $45 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $19 4d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $6 17d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $27 17d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 17d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $6 17d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 60¢ $30 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 98¢ $30 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $18 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 44d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 29¢ $6 51d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in April? BUY No 98¢ $10 55d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns $1 61d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns $1 61d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 50¢ $1,268 84d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 50¢ $732 84d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $22 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $155 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $24 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $25 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $24 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $23 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $5 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $6 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $178 89d
Senators vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 53¢ $13 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.50 (match) · 100 history records