Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2733…e594 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%50W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$6
crypto 14% +$3
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$3
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 60 -0.4% -9.8% 83% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses50 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage527d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 03 $64 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 01 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $7 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $5,420 −$5 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 16 $19 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $17 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 61d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $57 63d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 92d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $44 150d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $15 183d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 183d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $46 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $15 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $64 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 241d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 242d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $25 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 273d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $34 303d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $34 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 334d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.52 · official $78.52 (match) · 124 history records