Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2732…a337 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 30% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 8% +$1
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 33 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage300d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? Sep 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 +2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $31 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $28 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $30 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $31 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $8 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $21 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $14 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $12 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $4 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $30 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $22 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $30 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $14 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records