Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x272e…6e99 weather 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-2%) realized −$137 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%154W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$178
14 days−$149
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$364
other 5% −$47
politics 2% −$60
world 1% −$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -5.4% -14.4% 16% 6% -20.4%
≤30d 164 +3.6% -6.2% 28% 15% -18.6%
≤90d 342 +4.3% -5.6% 45% 27% -15.1%
all 342 +4.3% -5.6% 45% 27% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 27% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 18% -23.3%
15% -22.9% 12% -30.7%
20% -30.4% 7% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses154 / 188
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $19 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $17 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $14 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $49 −$17 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $33 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $26 −$6 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $31 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$5 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $25 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $71 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $57 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 61¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 62¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 58¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 58¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 58¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 59¢ $29 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.36 · official $8.36 (match) · 3500 history records