Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x272c…7f07 other 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,379 (+9%) realized +$2,732 · open −$353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%134W / 216L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$781
14 days+$1,406
30 days+$1,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1,066
other 39% +$1,211
tech 7% +$12
politics 5% +$318
sports 1% +$111
culture 1% −$26
finance 1% −$37
economics 0% +$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 41% +4.5%
≤30d 126 +7.7% -2.6% 42% 31% +0.9%
≤90d 350 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 28% +0.9%
all 350 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 28% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 28% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 22% -8.8%
15% -25.3% 18% -17.6%
20% -32.6% 14% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$16 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized+$2,732
Unrealized−$353
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses134 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions36
Markets (closed)350 / 386
History coverage95d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 63¢ 67¢ $130 $138 +$8 (+6%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Yes 81¢ 87¢ $128 $137 +$9 (+7%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? No 29¢ 39¢ $63 $85 +$22 (+34%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $94 $77 −$17 (-18%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 55¢ 38¢ $82 $57 −$26 (-31%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-5%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 27¢ 26¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-22%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $76 $31 −$45 (-59%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $67 $26 −$41 (-61%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $35 $22 −$13 (-36%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+25%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $32 $14 −$18 (-57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $45 $13 −$32 (-71%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-42%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $16 $7 −$10 (-60%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $51 $6 −$46 (-89%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $55 +$40 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $390 +$86 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $113 −$23 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Jun 18 $49 −$7 -13%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $282 +$74 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $858 +$102 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $105 +$51 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $220 +$148 +67%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $940 +$10 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$17 -47%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $111 −$4 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $39 +$9 +22%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $66 +$6 +10%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$16 -40%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $384 −$75 -20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $870 +$104 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $104 +$86 +83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $29 +$14 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $69 +$8 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $116 +$341 +295%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $83 −$47 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $112 +$156 +140%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$40 -74%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $93 −$48 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $401 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $215 +$81 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $166 +$7 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $134 +$83 +62%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 +$76 +470%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $73 +$71 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $44 −$22 -50%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $8 12m
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $4 12m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 1¢ $7 12m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 95¢ $95 12m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 50m
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 83¢ $57 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $50 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $64 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $42 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $190 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $13 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $94 4h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $41 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $300 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $260 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $130 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $72 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.06 · official $904.08 (match) · 2442 history records