Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x272b…e303 weather 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate85%154W / 28L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$299
7 days−$288
14 days−$297
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 44% −$236
other 16% +$53
crypto 15% +$12
politics 9% +$31
world 7% −$27
sports 5% +$112
finance 3% +$9
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.1% -26.8% 80% 0% -32.4%
≤30d 19 -4.6% -13.7% 89% 0% -16.7%
≤90d 85 -1.8% -11.2% 94% 1% -10.3%
all 182 -2.0% -11.4% 85% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$1,123
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses154 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)182 / 191
History coverage600d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $298 $297 −$1 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $196 $199 +$3 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $148 $148 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $44 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 22 $299 −$299 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $295 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $317 +$4 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $200 −$9 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $517 +$15 +3%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $349 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 29? May 30 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 25? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on May 25? May 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 26? May 25 $432 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? May 25 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 26? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on May 13? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 18? May 20 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 18? May 20 $475 +$1 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $421 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 16? May 16 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 16? May 16 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 16? May 16 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 16? May 16 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on May 16? May 16 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 15? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on May 14? May 14 $267 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on May 14? May 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on May 14? May 14 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 14? May 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 13? May 13 $337 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 13? May 13 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 13? May 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on May 13? May 12 $184 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 12? May 12 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on May 11? May 11 $759 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 47°F or below on May 11? May 11 $441 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 10? May 10 $1,200 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 15°C or below on May 9? May 08 $727 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 16°C on May 9? May 08 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 14°C on May 8? May 07 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 13°C or below on May 8? May 07 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 100¢ $100 39m
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 40m
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 41m
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $298 48m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 51m
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 89¢ $44 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $109 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $299 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $295 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $109 7d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $156 7d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $35 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 31? BUY No 97¢ $517 22d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $349 25d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 29? BUY No 98¢ $64 25d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $317 27d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $53 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $102 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $49 27d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $99 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $196 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 27d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $432 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $67 27d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $108 27d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $185 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,122.69 · official $1,122.69 (match) · 797 history records