Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

27 0x272a…80d9 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$10 (+4%) realized +$11 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +149% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +125% what you keep after slip

Net edge+125%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+125.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+149.0%	+125.3%	67%	67%	-3.0%
≤30d	3	+149.0%	+125.3%	67%	67%	-3.0%
≤90d	3	+149.0%	+125.3%	67%	67%	-3.0%
all	3	+149.0%	+125.3%	67%	67%	-3.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+125.3%	67%	-3.0%
10%	+103.7%	33%	-12.3%
15%	+84.0%	33%	-20.8%
20%	+66.0%	33%	-28.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +149% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage

Net worth$106

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage51d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$107	$106	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	Jun 18	$115	−$7	-6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Jun 17	$16	+$2	+11%
76ers vs. Celtics	Jun 17	$3	+$15	+442%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$110	1h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	SELL No	91¢	$108	1h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	BUY No	96¢	$115	27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$16	50d
76ers vs. Celtics	BUY 76ers	18¢	$3	50d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.34 · official $106.34 (match) · 7 history records