Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2728…4f96 sports 1378 markets active 0h ago coverage 362d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 362d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52,040 (-15%) realized −$52,109 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%571W / 803L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,608est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$306
7 days+$3,521
14 days+$3,425
30 days−$7,965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$41,205
crypto 23% −$11,680
other 7% −$540
world 0% −$130
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +7.8% -2.5% 49% 47% +8.7%
≤30d 262 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 41% -17.9%
≤90d 378 -7.1% -16.0% 42% 40% -19.0%
all 1374 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 40% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 40% -23.6%
10% -24.1% 38% -30.9%
15% -31.5% 36% -37.6%
20% -38.2% 33% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$195 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$2,069
Realized−$52,109
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses571 / 803
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,608
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1374 / 1378
History coverage362d ⚠
Avg bet$252
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,200 $1,258 +$58 (+5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $500 $585 +$85 (+17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 29¢ $200 $134 −$66 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 +$226 +111%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$46 -90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$121 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$145 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$171 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $518 +$498 +96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $305 −$15 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $102 −$71 -70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $102 −$48 -47%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$85 +83%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $205 −$160 -78%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $132 −$130 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $100 +$19 +18%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$55 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$103 -51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$73 -72%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -43%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 +$143 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 +$210 +206%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $103 +$564 +550%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $622 +$643 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $621 +$599 +96%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $306 −$301 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$71 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $413 +$323 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $108 −$106 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $101 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $203 22m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $51 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 11h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 67¢ $202 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $377 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 12¢ $205 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 41¢ $290 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,068.74 · official $2,068.74 (match) · 3500 history records