Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2721…cf8a
world · 225 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$62 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$832
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions111
Markets (closed)117 / 225
History coverage47d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day71.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 111 History 117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$30
14 days+$29
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $142 $145 +$3 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 62¢ 56¢ $81 $74 −$7 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 84¢ 80¢ $65 $61 −$4 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $67 $60 −$7 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 60¢ 48¢ $56 $46 −$11 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 42¢ $18 $44 +$26 (+140%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 22¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+20%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 94¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 97¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 64¢ 88¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+54%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 23¢ 44¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+96%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 75¢ 50¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 84¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $194 +$12 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $62 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $13 $0 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $17 +$1 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +51%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +41%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $191 −$8 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -20%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$15 +791%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Jun 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $79 −$4 -5%
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -10%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon register any party before 2027? Jun 05 $3 $0 -9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% +$24
politics 11% −$10
crypto 9% +$9
other 7% +$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $17 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 76¢ $55 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $214 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 54¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $3 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $2 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 41¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 95¢ $2 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 96¢ $4 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 4h
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $2 4h
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +29.1% +16.8% 76% 39% -5.9%
≤30d 107 +9.4% -1.0% 56% 21% -8.2%
≤90d 117 +9.7% -0.7% 56% 23% -6.9%
all 117 +9.7% -0.7% 56% 23% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 23% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 13% -15.8%
15% -18.9% 9% -23.9%
20% -26.8% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $832.28 · official $819.47 · 3500 history records