Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2721…0ce7 weather 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%128W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% +$43
other 23% +$16
sports 1% +$19
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 41 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 2% -9.3%
≤90d 128 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 128 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$968
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses128 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)128 / 133
History coverage65d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $266 $267 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 Jun 22 $260 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $476 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $82 +$18 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $451 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $426 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $904 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $1,002 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $1,450 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $413 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $479 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1,496 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $281 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $989 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 29? May 29 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $354 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $786 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 38m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $344 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $160 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 BUY No 100¢ $160 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 9d
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $67 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $150 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $476 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $82 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $120 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.81 · official $967.81 (match) · 365 history records