Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2720…a262 world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 24% $0
politics 20% +$1
sports 9% −$12
economics 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 17% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.5% 41% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 65 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 2% -9.6%
all 66 -1.8% -11.2% 30% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage490d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 −$2 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -57%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $37 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $15 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $27 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $24 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $107 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $72 −$4 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $127 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $31 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.20 · official $40.20 (match) · 242 history records