Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x2720…109c other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 39% −$14
sports 5% +$15
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 126 +1.2% -8.4% 6% 4% -9.5%
all 143 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 130
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage115d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $257 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $186 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $228 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $379 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $231 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $411 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $433 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 12h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 14h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 16h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $29 16h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $29 41h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 43h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 47h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.99 (match) · 389 history records