Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x271f…b8eb other 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$846 (-14%) realized −$846 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%47W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$617
crypto 7% −$420
politics 1% +$12
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$10
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 64% 5% -8.6%
≤30d 99 -3.9% -13.1% 39% 5% -16.7%
≤90d 118 -6.7% -15.6% 36% 7% -17.2%
all 196 -33.8% -40.1% 24% 7% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 7% -25.9%
10% -45.8% 3% -32.9%
15% -51.1% 3% -39.4%
20% -55.9% 3% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses47 / 149
Open positions3
Markets (closed)196 / 199
History coverage480d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $34 −$4 -10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 −$4 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $14 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 27h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 29h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $16 30h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 33h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 35h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $9 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 38h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.25 · official $31.25 (match) · 1189 history records