Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x271e…8eb9 weather 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+20%) realized +$95 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$100
14 days+$96
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$115
sports 2% −$4
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +42.3% +28.8% 100% 67% +17.9%
≤30d 9 +9.6% -0.8% 78% 56% +14.2%
≤90d 9 +9.6% -0.8% 78% 56% +14.2%
all 9 +9.6% -0.8% 78% 56% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 56% +14.2%
10% -10.3% 44% +3.2%
15% -19.0% 33% -6.7%
20% -26.9% 22% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.32 per $1 lost it wins $9.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage15d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 27? No 77¢ 100¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? No 52¢ 52¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27? No 69¢ 68¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? No 84¢ 83¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $97 +$56 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 25? Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 +$9 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 24? Jun 25 $93 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +126%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.22 · official $215.23 (match) · 20 history records