Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x271a…4ffb sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%39W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$210
other 31% +$165
finance 5% +$35
politics 3% +$8
world 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.2% +22.3% 100% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 3 -9.9% -18.4% 67% 33% -30.4%
≤90d 3 -9.9% -18.4% 67% 33% -30.4%
all 61 +5.0% -5.0% 64% 36% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 36% -9.6%
10% -14.1% 26% -18.2%
15% -22.4% 21% -26.1%
20% -30.0% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$72 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses39 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage225d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$2 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $576 +$76 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 21 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 21 $193 +$95 +49%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $542 +$35 +6%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 13 $537 +$5 +1%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $180 +$47 +26%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $280 +$19 +7%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $100 +$96 +95%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $196 −$96 -49%
Thunder vs. Kings Nov 08 $191 −$11 -6%
Pistons vs. Nets Nov 08 $181 +$9 +5%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 08 $130 −$130 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Bulls vs. Bucks Nov 08 $50 −$50 -100%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Nov 07 $200 −$7 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 07 $200 −$6 -3%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Nov 07 $200 −$4 -2%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $1 +$5 +500%
Warriors vs. Kings Nov 06 $440 +$13 +3%
Heat vs. Nuggets Nov 06 $431 +$8 +2%
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? Nov 06 $100 −$6 -6%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Nov 06 $258 +$80 +31%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Nov 06 $333 +$4 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Nov 06 $327 +$6 +2%
Nets vs. Pacers Nov 06 $305 +$23 +7%
Will EC Juventude win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $71 +$254 +360%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 05 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $50 +$21 +43%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $150 −$32 -22%
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election? Nov 05 $100 +$14 +14%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%? Nov 05 $518 +$59 +11%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 05 $200 +$8 +4%
Magic vs. Hawks Nov 05 $100 +$20 +20%
76ers vs. Bulls Nov 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $449 +$17 +4%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $20 +$13 +66%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $200 +$90 +45%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Clippers Nov 04 $345 −$345 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets Nov 04 $307 +$38 +12%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 04 $236 +$71 +30%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-02? Nov 04 $118 +$2 +2%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02? Nov 04 $131 +$10 +7%
Will CA Central Córdoba vs. Racing Club end in a draw? Nov 04 $80 +$51 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $80 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 4h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 15d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Weibo Gaming 75¢ $1 104d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 80¢ $1 104d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Weibo Gaming 74¢ $43 104d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 69¢ $40 104d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 204d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $652 204d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $576 204d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $542 213d
Lakers vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $542 214d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 99¢ $537 214d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? SELL Yes 73¢ $227 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster $5 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 59¢ $36 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 33¢ $20 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $299 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 94¢ $280 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 65¢ $0 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 62¢ $252 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $28 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $68 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 84¢ $168 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $100 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $0 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.83 · official $49.83 (match) · 155 history records