Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2718…86e4 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% $0
other 10% +$3
politics 8% +$1
finance 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 0% -9.5%
all 34 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage288d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $183 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $139 +$8 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $149 −$15 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $50 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $74 +$7 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $46 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $54 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 10 $4 $0 +5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $52 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $52 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $41 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $64 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $46 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $72 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $34 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $70 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $68 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $56 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records