Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
27 0x2718…780b sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,186 (-14%) realized −$2,183 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate37%43W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days+$220
14 days+$220
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$1,208
other 38% −$646
crypto 16% +$50
politics 2% −$273
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 36% +0.2%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 36% +0.2%
≤90d 48 -23.2% -30.6% 38% 27% -18.1%
all 116 -21.4% -28.8% 37% 28% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 28% -22.6%
10% -35.7% 25% -30.0%
15% -41.9% 19% -36.7%
20% -47.6% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$61 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$2,183
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses43 / 73
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage104d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 48¢ $275 $272 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $204 +$77 +38%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $206 +$157 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $302 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$72 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $290 +$70 +24%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $390 −$50 -13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $174 −$11 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $237 −$12 -5%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $107 −$71 -66%
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinski Apr 28 $57 −$56 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $141 +$143 +101%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $80 +$61 +76%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $88 −$87 -99%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $94 −$4 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 14 $602 −$13 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $196 −$7 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $739 −$27 -4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $50 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $105 −$41 -39%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 08 $55 −$54 -97%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $54 −$53 -98%
Spread: CA Banfield (-2.5) Apr 06 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Apr 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $227 −$225 -99%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $65 −$3 -5%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 02 $114 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$15 +77%
Sao Leopoldo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Facundo Acosta Apr 02 $82 +$19 +24%
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 02 $92 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 02 $86 +$6 +7%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 02 $70 +$18 +26%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? Apr 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Menorca: Yaroslav Demin vs Jonas Forejtek Apr 02 $60 −$58 -97%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $323 +$13 +4%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $145 +$177 +122%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $106 +$39 +37%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Apr 01 $80 +$26 +32%
Credit One Charleston Open: Anna Bondar vs Magdalena Frech Apr 01 $104 −$47 -45%
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja Apr 01 $58 −$57 -98%
Credit One Charleston Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Belinda Bencic Mar 31 $68 −$67 -98%
Islanders vs. Sabres Mar 31 $70 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 31 $61 +$9 +15%
Will Niger win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $165 −$162 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $168 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $280 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $280 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $204 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $363 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $332 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 6¢ $200 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $176 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $360 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 7h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $341 8h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.46 · official $272.46 (match) · 285 history records