Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2717…2014
sports · 327 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$131
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses277 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions29
Markets (closed)298 / 327
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 29 History 298 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$8
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 89¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Brazil 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Türkiye 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$15
crypto 19% +$16
other 13% +$6
weather 11% −$4
finance 5% −$10
world 3% −$1
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $5 42m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 89¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 89¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 88¢ $5 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 89¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 88¢ $5 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 89¢ $5 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $5 3h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 93¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 93¢ $5 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $3 10h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $5 10h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 80¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 298 +0.6% -8.9% 93% 14% -9.0%
≤90d 298 +0.6% -8.9% 93% 14% -9.0%
all 298 +0.6% -8.9% 93% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 14% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.22 · official $131.22 (match) · 642 history records