Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x2717…f344 politics 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,612 (+40%) realized +$1,612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,335per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 134d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$2,465
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.4% +54.1% 100% 100% +46.2%
≤30d 3 +70.4% +54.1% 100% 100% +46.2%
≤90d 3 +70.4% +54.1% 100% 100% +46.2%
all 3 +70.4% +54.1% 100% 100% +46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.1% 100% +46.2%
10% +39.4% 67% +32.2%
15% +25.9% 67% +19.4%
20% +13.6% 67% +7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$822 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,335
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,335 +$163 +12%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,694 +$854 +50%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $975 +$1,447 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records