Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

27 0x2716…6f87 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+3%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%8W / 4L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+26.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+40.2%	+26.9%	67%	67%	+25.4%
≤30d	12	+40.2%	+26.9%	67%	67%	+25.4%
≤90d	12	+40.2%	+26.9%	67%	67%	+25.4%
all	12	+40.2%	+26.9%	67%	67%	+25.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+26.9%	67%	+25.4%
10% ← realistic here	+14.7%	67%	+13.4%
15%	+3.6%	67%	+2.5%
20%	-6.5%	67%	-7.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late +46% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses8 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)12 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 12 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$6	+126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$6	+111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$6	+142%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$6	+102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 16	$6	+$6	+90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$2	58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$0	58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$0	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$0	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$4	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records