Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2715…2e26 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% $0
other 13% $0
sports 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.0% -11.4% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -9.3% -17.9% 35% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -11.7%
10% -25.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -32.9% 0% -27.8%
20% -39.5% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage486d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $17 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $3 −$1 -27%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $36 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $27 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $6 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $18 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $18 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $36 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $23 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $36 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records