Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x2714…960f sports 1280 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,204 (+1%) realized +$3,659 · open −$455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%691W / 583L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$5,111est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$6,459
other 9% +$448
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +4.7% -5.3% 55% 55% -3.6%
≤30d 347 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 54% -8.7%
≤90d 1274 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -7.9%
all 1274 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 54% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 54% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 54% -16.7%
15% -23.9% 51% -24.8%
20% -31.4% 46% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$310 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,308
Realized+$3,659
Unrealized−$455
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses691 / 583
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$5,111
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1274 / 1280
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$324
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 50¢ $416 $404 −$12 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 49¢ $364 $343 −$21 (-6%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58¢ 48¢ $348 $285 −$63 (-18%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Karmine Corp 62¢ 40¢ $372 $243 −$129 (-35%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 15¢ 6¢ $90 $33 −$57 (-63%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 29¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $567 +$433 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $387 +$613 +158%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 28 $490 −$490 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $557 +$443 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $517 +$483 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $570 +$430 +75%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $580 +$420 +72%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $460 +$540 +117%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $477 −$470 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $407 −$400 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $510 −$510 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $607 −$600 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $17 +$13 +75%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $560 +$440 +79%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $520 +$480 +92%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $220 −$220 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 27 $569 −$569 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $592 +$208 +35%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $560 −$560 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $456 +$344 +75%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $547 +$453 +83%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $520 −$520 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $696 +$304 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $557 +$443 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $497 +$503 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $477 −$470 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $250 +$250 +100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $420 +$580 +138%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $544 +$256 +47%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $315 −$315 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $567 −$560 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $557 −$550 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $437 +$563 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $437 −$430 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $484 +$516 +107%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $547 +$453 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $517 +$483 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $527 −$520 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $447 +$553 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $322 +$278 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $508 +$492 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $407 −$400 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $457 −$450 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $500 +$500 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $457 −$450 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $376 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $32 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $7 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $3 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $123 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $10 5h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $490 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 15¢ $92 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $567 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 38¢ $387 8h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $28 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $40 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $122 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $27 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $13 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $13 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $74 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $9 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $203 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $19 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 47¢ $477 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $407 10h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $517 10h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 51¢ $510 10h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $460 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.30 · official $1,308.30 (match) · 3500 history records