Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2713…dd26 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$4
other 39% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 12% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 16 -4.3% -13.4% 12% 0% -10.6%
all 37 -1.8% -11.2% 32% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage468d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $44 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $8 −$1 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $19 −$1 -7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 30 $15 $0 +2%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $22 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $23 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $16 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $22 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $40 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records