Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2712…eb71 sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,151 (-18%) realized −$1,213 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%118W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day207.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,106
7 days−$1,184
14 days−$1,367
30 days−$1,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% −$154
other 21% −$47
tech 19% +$88
sports 18% −$159
politics 11% −$120
finance 2% −$38
weather 2% −$7
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -62.5% -66.1% 12% 12% -69.4%
≤30d 419 -9.9% -18.5% 28% 24% -44.8%
≤90d 419 -9.9% -18.5% 28% 24% -44.8%
all 419 -9.9% -18.5% 28% 24% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover207.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 24% -44.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 21% -50.1%
15% -33.4% 20% -54.9%
20% -40.0% 19% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,659
Realized−$1,213
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses118 / 301
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions126
Markets (closed)419 / 467
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day207.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 126 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of June? No 44¢ 45¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? No 25¢ 24¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? No 25¢ 60¢ $40 $97 +$57 (+142%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 28¢ 28¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 24¢ 24¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No 37¢ 36¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of June? No 24¢ 27¢ $64 $71 +$7 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 22¢ $80 $68 −$12 (-15%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 46¢ 66¢ $40 $57 +$17 (+42%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 27¢ 22¢ $67 $56 −$11 (-16%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? No 27¢ 17¢ $80 $50 −$30 (-37%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 46¢ 46¢ $47 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? No 42¢ 38¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 38¢ 34¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? No 33¢ 34¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 29¢ 64¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+115%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? No 30¢ 27¢ $47 $42 −$5 (-11%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of June? No 34¢ 34¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? No 31¢ 32¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 27¢ 21¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? No 38¢ 49¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of June? No 18¢ 16¢ $42 $37 −$6 (-13%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? No 41¢ 46¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 13¢ 16¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? No 36¢ 20¢ $62 $35 −$27 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 264 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +89%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 600.0k by June 30? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on May 28? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -104%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 28? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $8 −$6 -70%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$6 -73%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27? Jun 17 $39 −$34 -88%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on May 28? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? Jun 17 $36 −$34 -95%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on May 28? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 17 $62 −$15 -24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $12 −$9 -75%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -34%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Bol: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Valentina Ivanov Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on May 28? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on May 28? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on May 28? Jun 17 $36 −$32 -89%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$28 -95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$4 -73%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
FC Imabari vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "Backrooms" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28? Jun 17 $3 −$12 -343%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -81%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF Monastir: Andre Lukosiute vs Anastasia Bertacchi Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $11 −$8 -75%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on May 28? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $385 on May 28? Jun 17 $21 −$22 -105%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $30 31m
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 39m
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY No 25¢ $30 1h
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY No 20¢ $30 1h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY No 33¢ $28 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $5 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $12 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $13 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 29¢ $2 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 29¢ $2 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $4 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $12 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $5 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 30¢ $28 1h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 49¢ $7 6h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? BUY No 44¢ $30 6h
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? BUY No 37¢ $3 7h
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY No 33¢ $30 7h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 7h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $30 7h
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? BUY No 37¢ $6 7h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $13 8h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 25¢ $2 8h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $30 8h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 25¢ $26 8h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of June? BUY No 20¢ $30 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,658.83 · official $2,633.97 (match) · 3500 history records