Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2711…4019 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$130 (+5%) realized +$133 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$178
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$379
other 34% $0
politics 23% +$594
crypto 6% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -26.0% -33.1% 21% 21% -44.6%
≤30d 21 -27.3% -34.2% 24% 24% -44.7%
≤90d 22 -30.6% -37.2% 23% 23% -55.7%
all 46 -7.1% -15.9% 43% 43% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 43% -2.7%
10% -24.0% 41% -12.0%
15% -31.3% 39% -20.5%
20% -38.0% 30% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$37 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)46 / 53
History coverage596d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $33 −$33 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $80 −$39 -49%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$184 +596%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$20 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $141 −$138 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $29 +$40 +138%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $100 +$72 +72%
Will West Ham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Nov 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? Nov 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $10 +$13 +133%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $28 +$14 +49%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 26 $30 +$38 +127%
Will Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Nov 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid Nov 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17? Nov 20 $46 +$24 +52%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? Nov 20 $100 +$32 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 22, 5AM ET Sep 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 8AM ET Sep 19 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-17? Sep 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2025-09-09? Sep 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-09-07? Sep 09 $11 +$6 +49%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-04? Sep 07 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Slovenia win on 2025-09-05? Sep 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04? Sep 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $421 +$511 +121%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $124 +$82 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $39 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $39 2h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $39 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $33 26h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $39 26h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $39 26h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $38 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.62 · official $224.62 (match) · 77 history records