Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x270e…52d1 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,908 (+18%) realized +$1,908 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate72%88W / 35L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day116.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2,385
other 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +13.4% +2.6% 72% 63% +11.3%
≤30d 123 +13.4% +2.6% 72% 63% +11.3%
≤90d 123 +13.4% +2.6% 72% 63% +11.3%
all 123 +13.4% +2.6% 72% 63% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 63% +11.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 54% +0.6%
15% -16.2% 33% -9.1%
20% -24.4% 23% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$33 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,908
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses88 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage4d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day116.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $135 +$63 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $70 +$29 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $44 +$22 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $44 +$55 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $83 −$82 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $131 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $33 +$33 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$52 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $60 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$17 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$44 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $64 −$31 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $43 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $247 +$86 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$37 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$27 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $66 −$33 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$20 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $305 +$228 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$36 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $213 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $90 −$24 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $78 −$76 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 539 history records