Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x270d…d5ce sports 3 markets active 116d ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,466 (-50%) realized −$3,466 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,289per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,465
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-85.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -83.5% -85.1% 0% 0% -55.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -85.1% 0% -55.2%
10% ← realistic here -86.5% 0% -59.5%
15% -87.8% 0% -63.4%
20% -89.0% 0% -67.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1,155 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,466
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2,289
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 05 $6,864 −$3,464 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $850 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $876 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 115d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $860 116d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 116d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 116d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $860 116d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records