Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
27 0x270c…f377 sports 709 markets active 2d ago coverage 227d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 226d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3,754 (-9%) realized −$3,543 · open −$211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate72%511W / 195L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 227d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$450
world 35% +$328
other 10% +$341
politics 1% −$125
crypto 1% −$31
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 21% -49.6%
≤30d 99 +3.0% -6.8% 66% 23% -30.7%
≤90d 286 -10.9% -19.4% 63% 24% -24.6%
all 706 -2.2% -11.5% 72% 27% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 27% -8.9%
10% -20.0% 11% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 6% -25.5%
20% -34.8% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$3,543
Unrealized−$211
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses511 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)706 / 709
History coverage227d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 54¢ 16¢ $140 $43 −$97 (-69%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $102 $31 −$71 (-70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $54 $10 −$44 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $22 +$2 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $107 +$5 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $92 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$9 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $12 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $1,149 −$891 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $24 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 73¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 73¢ $19 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $21 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $23 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $23 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $23 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $6 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $12 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.25 · official $83.25 (match) · 3500 history records