Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2708…6f6c
weather · 559 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$174 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$184 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses98 / 440
Open positions21
Markets (closed)538 / 559
History coverage59d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 538 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$51
14 days−$120
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $2 $23 +$21 (+1023%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 82¢ $2 $6 +$5 (+312%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 37¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+68%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$20 +585%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 8? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 6? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 8? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 8? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$5 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$30 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 6? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 6? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 6? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $7 +$45 +645%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 31? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 31? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 31? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 31? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$175
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 58m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 26h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 26h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 45h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -25.8% -32.8% 13% 13% -35.5%
≤30d 196 -12.2% -20.6% 17% 17% -25.3%
≤90d 538 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 18% -17.4%
all 538 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 18% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 18% -17.4%
10% -20.7% 18% -25.3%
15% -28.4% 18% -32.5%
20% -35.4% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.54 · official $49.54 (match) · 1708 history records