Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2706…c6be weather 1204 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$355 (+4%) realized +$350 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%736W / 424L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$50
14 days−$75
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -10.2% -18.7% 64% 48% -16.9%
≤30d 566 +4.4% -5.6% 66% 49% -3.6%
≤90d 1139 +2.2% -7.5% 63% 47% -7.8%
all 1160 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 46% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 46% -7.6%
10% -16.3% 33% -16.4%
15% -24.4% 23% -24.5%
20% -31.8% 13% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses736 / 424
Open positions44
Markets (closed)1160 / 1204
History coverage155d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 1160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 85¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? No 70¢ 96¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 81¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 85¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 82¢ 88¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 74¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? No 67¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 89¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? No 66¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 76¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 71¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? No 70¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? No 74¢ 93¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? No 83¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 76¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 44¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 85¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 48¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.09 · official $168.10 (match) · 3500 history records