Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

27 0x2705…d1b9 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$104 (-22%) realized −$86 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-1.0%	-10.4%	33%	33%	-97.4%
≤30d	3	-1.0%	-10.4%	33%	33%	-97.4%
≤90d	3	-1.0%	-10.4%	33%	33%	-97.4%
all	3	-1.0%	-10.4%	33%	33%	-97.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.4%	33%	-97.4%
10%	-19.0%	33%	-97.7%
15%	-26.8%	33%	-97.9%
20%	-34.0%	33%	-98.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -97% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$53 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$230

Realized−$86

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$140	$125	−$15 (-11%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$108	$105	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$1	+$2	+197%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$111	13m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$144	13m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	SELL Yes	20¢	$98	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$107	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	9¢	$6	43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	33¢	$1	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.00 · official $230.00 (match) · 9 history records