Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2705…a12a crypto 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,072 (-18%) realized −$2,071 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%110W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$744
world 22% −$1,078
finance 5% −$1
other 4% −$159
sports 3% −$182
economics 1% +$2
politics 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.2% +18.7% 75% 75% +30.1%
≤30d 4 +31.2% +18.7% 75% 75% +30.1%
≤90d 126 -41.5% -47.1% 33% 32% -41.3%
all 244 -22.9% -30.3% 45% 43% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 43% -27.7%
10% -36.9% 40% -34.6%
15% -43.0% 31% -40.9%
20% -48.6% 20% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$38 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$2,071
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses110 / 134
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)244 / 247
History coverage652d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $30 −$24 -79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$30 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$26 +44%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $51 +$52 +102%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 15 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 15 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 14 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 14 $11 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 14 $10 +$13 +124%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $50 −$30 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 14 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 14 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 14 $26 −$20 -76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 14 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 14 $32 −$16 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $51 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 14 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $26 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 13 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 13 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 13 $106 −$5 -5%
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 2d
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 49¢ $51 3d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 33d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 38d
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39d
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 39d
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39d
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 39d
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.39 · official $129.39 (match) · 709 history records