Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2702…e7af
politics · 124 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$70 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage102d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $55 −$15 -27%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $233 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $229 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $42 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $163 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $183 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $58 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 26% −$18
politics 24% −$16
other 20% −$24
crypto 13% −$2
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% −$5
world 4% +$2
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 2h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 6h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 6h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $43 6h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $43 14h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $50 15h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $50 21h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 98¢ $58 22h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $57 28h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 28h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $59 36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $5 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $55 42h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 43h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $53 2d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $52 2d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $53 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL No 71¢ $40 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $67 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 18% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 54 -1.0% -10.4% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 110 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 123 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.31 · official $46.31 (match) · 485 history records