Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26fb…c70e
other · 463 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$114 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses230 / 226
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)456 / 463
History coverage190d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 7 History 456 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-05-03? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 +$4 +388%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 $0 +47%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 $0 +32%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 $0 +36%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 +$1 +140%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +23%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +36%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 +$5 +487%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$20
sports 32% −$32
crypto 24% −$23
politics 6% −$32
culture 2% −$9
weather 1% $0
tech 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 31h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 41d
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 41d
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 41d
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 41d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 41d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 41d
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.9% -42.0% 38% 38% -43.3%
≤30d 13 -35.9% -42.0% 38% 38% -43.3%
≤90d 106 -10.9% -19.3% 40% 40% -19.8%
all 456 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 46% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 46% -19.5%
10% -27.5% 39% -27.2%
15% -34.5% 28% -34.2%
20% -40.9% 21% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.97 · official $5.97 (match) · 1077 history records