Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26fb…67b8 sports 596 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23,639 (-18%) realized −$23,647 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%297W / 296L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$2,212est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$937
crypto 7% −$458
other 1% +$283
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +3.1% -6.7% 57% 51% +3.5%
≤30d 325 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 43% -7.7%
≤90d 593 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 40% -10.3%
all 593 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 40% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -18.9%
15% -28.1% 18% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$71 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized−$23,647
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses297 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,212
Open positions2
Markets (closed)593 / 596
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$223
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 72¢ $551 $569 +$18 (+3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 57¢ $72 $61 −$10 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $360 +$556 +154%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $96 −$71 -74%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $415 +$189 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $214 +$39 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $313 +$192 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $87 −$15 -17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 −$77 -79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $366 +$264 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $169 −$17 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $341 +$133 +39%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $166 +$241 +145%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $122 +$18 +15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $390 −$390 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $359 −$26 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $105 +$98 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $87 +$116 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $254 +$150 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $547 +$260 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $507 +$232 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $156 +$43 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $144 +$41 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $91 +$41 +45%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $214 −$7 -3%
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 15 $343 −$19 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $12 +$3 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $841 +$585 +70%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $168 −$21 -13%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $108 +$107 +99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $751 +$282 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $644 +$186 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $322 −$322 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $274 −$75 -27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $237 −$15 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $348 +$104 +30%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $288 +$51 +18%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $273 +$28 +10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $178 +$40 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $207 −$124 -60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $160 +$41 +26%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $125 +$37 +30%
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-1.5) vs Kukushkin (+1.5) Jun 13 $161 +$112 +69%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $157 +$8 +5%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $342 −$73 -21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $146 −$146 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $57 −$5 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $258 3m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $11 4m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $273 14m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $916 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $202 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $211 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $350 40m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $158 42m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $6 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $19 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 55m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $67 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $604 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $253 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $29 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $26 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $9 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $66 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $214 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $214 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $505 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $193 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $72 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $87 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.71 · official $652.70 · 3500 history records