Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26fb…bafe sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$543
14 days+$213
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$166
other 45% −$238
crypto 5% +$285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.6% -7.2% 69% 58% -3.4%
≤30d 36 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 50% -7.3%
≤90d 36 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 50% -7.3%
all 36 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 50% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 50% -7.3%
10% -22.9% 42% -16.2%
15% -30.3% 31% -24.3%
20% -37.1% 17% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$135 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)36 / 44
History coverage15d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $100 +$131 +131%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $202 +$91 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $992 +$83 +8%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$22 +22%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 +$20 +20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $982 +$447 +46%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $898 +$86 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $842 +$51 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $581 +$265 +46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $427 +$155 +36%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $170 +$257 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $499 −$331 -66%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $682 −$671 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $400 +$283 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$41 -40%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $125 −$123 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$77 +165%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $192 −$190 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $102 +$75 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $292 25m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $928 25m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 33m
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $122 59m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $891 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $148 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 65¢ $101 2h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams SELL 91¢ $231 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 72¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams BUY 38¢ $100 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 79¢ $101 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Canada 83¢ $101 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 3d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.77 · official $333.77 (match) · 94 history records