Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26f4…df81 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-46%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$35
other 37% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -73.9% -76.4% 20% 20% -96.2%
≤30d 5 -73.9% -76.4% 20% 20% -96.2%
≤90d 5 -73.9% -76.4% 20% 20% -96.2%
all 5 -73.9% -76.4% 20% 20% -96.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.4% 20% -96.2%
10% -78.6% 20% -96.6%
15% -80.7% 0% -96.9%
20% -82.6% 0% -97.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 19¢ $1 31m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 18¢ $1 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $14 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $14 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 76¢ $2 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 10 history records