Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26f4…e110 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2462 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 37L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day2462.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$6
world 29% +$15
other 16% +$13
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2462 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.5% -9.1% 12% 2% -9.4%
≤30d 42 +0.5% -9.1% 12% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 42 +0.5% -9.1% 12% 2% -9.4%
all 42 +0.5% -9.1% 12% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2462.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×22.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$615
Trades / day2462.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $754 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $155 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $950 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,199 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 16 $234 +$15 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $478 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $378 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $12,220 −$6 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $1,083 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $429 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $747 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $486 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $547 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $590 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $761 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $184 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $246 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $848 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 0m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $15 6m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 25m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 25m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 30m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 31m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 31m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 35m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $15 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 36m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $15 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $5 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.89 · official $252.89 (match) · 3500 history records