Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26f3…d524 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%23W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$11
other 19% +$26
world 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.2% -23.3% 80% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 7 -12.3% -20.7% 71% 14% -4.0%
≤90d 30 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 27% -7.9%
all 30 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 27% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 27% -7.9%
10% -20.3% 10% -16.7%
15% -28.0% 7% -24.8%
20% -35.1% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses23 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage83d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $96 +$22 +23%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$12 -33%
Jiujiang: Viktoria Morvayova vs Yexin Ma May 05 $23 +$2 +8%
Wuxi: Keegan Smith vs Yunchaokete Bu May 05 $30 +$2 +5%
Jiujiang: Dalila Spiteri vs Kyoka Okamura May 05 $25 +$2 +6%
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun May 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu May 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Jiujiang: Aoi Ito vs Lizette Cabrera May 05 $30 +$5 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan May 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ashlyn Krueger vs Nikola B May 04 $23 +$2 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane P May 04 $64 +$7 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Irin May 04 $46 +$3 +7%
Jiujiang: Zongyu Li vs Wushuang Zheng May 04 $50 +$3 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Jesper d May 04 $25 −$6 -24%
Wuxi: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Tianhui Zhang May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 14 $50 −$4 -8%
T20 Series Indonesia vs Sweden: Indonesia vs Sweden Apr 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Busan: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Adam Walton Apr 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Busan: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Chidekh Apr 13 $20 +$1 +7%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $20 −$12 -62%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 12 $19 +$1 +4%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $25 +$4 +17%
Monza: Stefano Travaglia vs Raul Brancaccio Apr 08 $18 +$2 +10%
Wuning: Sergey Fomin vs Moerani Bouzige Apr 07 $10 +$6 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $25 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 92¢ $25 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $23 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 8d
Wuxi: Keegan Smith vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 95¢ $30 52d
Jiujiang: Viktoria Morvayova vs Yexin Ma BUY Viktoria Morvayova 93¢ $23 52d
Jiujiang: Dalila Spiteri vs Kyoka Okamura SELL Kyoka Okamura 100¢ $27 52d
Jiujiang: Dalila Spiteri vs Kyoka Okamura BUY Kyoka Okamura 94¢ $25 52d
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun BUY Alex Bolt 3¢ $1 52d
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $20 52d
Jiujiang: Aoi Ito vs Lizette Cabrera SELL Lizette Cabrera 100¢ $35 52d
Jiujiang: Aoi Ito vs Lizette Cabrera BUY Lizette Cabrera 86¢ $30 52d
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu BUY Adam Walton 96¢ $19 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan BUY Stefano Travaglia 91¢ $2 53d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan BUY Stefano Travaglia 91¢ $1 53d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan BUY Stefano Travaglia 91¢ $10 53d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan BUY Stefano Travaglia 91¢ $10 53d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan BUY Stefano Travaglia 91¢ $5 53d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ashlyn Krueger vs Nikola B SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $25 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records